Romney's Challenges

This election shouldn't be this close.  From several economic indicators such as the unemployment rate, Mitt Romney should be running away with this election.  At least this is what Charlie Cook has argued in a recent analysis of the 2012 Presidential Election.

However, Governor Romney and his campaign have a few challenges that they must confront if he's going to win in November.

A Failure to Connect

Governor Romney must connect with the voters.  It's a broken record, but true.  This has plagued him since he ran in 2008 and has continued to weigh him down in 2012.  On top of this, his remarks two weeks ago with the protests and riots in Middle East and how the 47% video do not help his campaign.

A recent survey from Pew reveals more troubling news for his campaign.  Even after the Republican convention and the efforts to appeal to a wider swath of the American electorate, especially women, Romney has the worst favorability rating of any recent Presidential candidate.

This perception of Romney is not going to make it any easier to win in November.  Voters want to have some sort of connection with their elected officials, and they want to feel that their elected officials is looking out for their best interests.  It's a two-way street.

From Pew's data, favorability matters quite a lot.  With the exception of Vice President Al Gore, the candidate with the favorability advantage won the election.  Compounding this, the bad news for Romney is that he has a -5 net favorability, he is the only recent candidate to be in negative numbers in the September before the election.

In addition, according to Pew, only 23% of voters think that Romney "connects well with ordinary Americans" better than President Obama.  This perception and the negative favorability numbers are not going to get any better as the effect of the 47% video spreads.

Bad news begets bad news . . .

Along with the favorability data, Pew shows a widening margin for President Obama in the national head-to-head match up.  To make matter worse for the Romney camp, Romney has no advantage on any issue associated with the economy except for reducing the federal budget deficit, hardly a salient issue with voters.

These national data are important, but what is critical to the 2012 Presidential Election is Ohio.

Ohio and the Economy

A recent Ohio Newspaper Poll shows a 5 point margin for President Obama, a bit wider than the 3 point margin found last month before the conventions.  This gap not insurmountable, but the numbers are moving the wrong way for the Romney camp.  The bad news for the Romney campaign is that the likely voters in Ohio see President Obama as better fit to fix the economy than Romney.  Last month Romney had a 7 point advantage over the President, now there's been an 11 point swing.

The economy was supposed to Romney's; throughout the primary it was the heart of his campaign; however, in Ohio, a critical Battleground state, he is not only losing ground in the head-to-head match up, he's losing ground in the area that was going to his ticket to the White House.

Good News?

The good news for the Romney campaign is that it's only September and that there are four debates from now until Election Day.  Plus, a lot can happen outside of the campaign that will throw a wrench into anyone's predictions.

At this time in the 2008 campaign, McCain was ahead of Obama in Ohio.  Obama moved ahead in Ohio during the last month and a half in part because of the debates, the Palin interviews, and the economy tanking the same day Senator McCain said, "the fundamentals of our economy are strong."

Is the election over?  Hardly.  But the last six weeks of the campaign will be a lot like riding an old wooden roller coaster, so hold on tight.