If you've been living in Ohio over the past six months and watch television at any time, you probably noticed that there's an election going on. For those new to Ohio this can be quite overwhelming, educational, annoying, fascinating, or some combination of these.
The fact of the matter is the Ohio has been a key battleground state in Presidential Elections, and this year is no different.
One of the first places Mitt Romney came after accepting the Republican nomination was Cincinnati, OH. Paul Ryan visited his alma mater in Southwest Ohio soon after being picked as the VP. In 2008 Candidate Obama had 17 campaign events from June until Election Day, and on Labor Day President Obama spent part of his time in Northwest Ohio. Just by looking at the campaign activity of the candidates, they are not only saying that Ohio is important, they are spending time and money campaigning here.
Let's make an assumption as we examine why the candidates keep coming to Ohio and inundate our airwaves with campaign commercials: candidates are rational. By rational I am saying that they weigh costs and benefits before making a strategic decision. They act in their own self-interest, and their main interest is cobbling together more votes than the other candidate. Consequently, they are going to put money and effort where is will matter most, and Ohio matters quite a lot.
The importance of Ohio in 2012 is the synergy of its bellwether status, the state's competitiveness in Presidential Elections, and it's 18 electoral votes.
Over the past 100 years Ohio has voted for the loser in a Presidential Election only twice, 1944 and 1960. What is more: No Republican has ever won the White House without also winning Ohio. So the saying, "As Ohio goes, so goes the Nation," is not only catchy but it's accurate (more accurate than many of the campaign ads). Connected with the bellwether status of Ohio is it's competitiveness in Presidential Elections.
According to the Ohio Poll, the 2012 Presidential Election looks like it's going to be a nail biter again. This highlights the closeness of Presidential Elections in Ohio. When we take a look to the 2004 and 2008 elections, the competitiveness is clearer. Daniel Coffey and his colleagues at the University of Akron report in Buckeye Battleground that Ohio was the most competitive state in the 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections. Ohio had the lowest average margin of victory across the two elections - 3.3 percentage points.
For the candidates the message is clear: Turnout is key. In close races you must win the turnout campaign. And, the campaigns are hard at work trying to ensure that their partisans don't stay at home. The Romney camp is planning a "Buckeye Blitz" this month, and the Obama team is tapping into its organization that they set up four years ago and canvassing neighborhoods in targeted areas.
The winner-take-all design of the Electoral College makes Ohio's 18 electoral votes a prize worth time and effort. Either candidate can win in Ohio but only one will, and the one that does is likely going to the White House.
Like it or not Ohioans, Ohio is at the heart of Presidential Elections.
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