A Student's Experience

One of my students, Daniel Rajaiah, had the opportunity to attend the Democratic National Convention.  Below is his thoughts about his experience during that week.
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On Sunday September 2, 2012 I was privileged to be invited by members of the Ohio Democratic Party to attend and briefly speak to the Ohio delegation at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, NC. Realizing the importance of this opportunity I quickly purchased a one way flight to Charlotte for the following morning and emailed all my professors at UD to explain to them the situation.

After landing in Charlotte on Monday evening I took a shuttle to the Hilton suites where the Ohio delegation was staying at. I met my friends Nick Haneck and State Representative Jay Goyal in the lobby and explained my situation to them and they agreed to let me sleep in their hotel room. That same night Rep. Goyal introduced me to several other state legislators and we all took a shuttle to the John Legend concert and cocktail event at the NASCAR hall of fame. On the shuttle many of the legislators were talking about sports and other things that were not related to politics. Even though I have had pretty close contact with elected officials I have never seen this personal side of them before.

The convention was truly an eye opening experience. It was cleverly tailored to appease different section of the American voting public. Some examples of this include the way the convention was structured. During the afternoons and early evenings of the days during the convention the DNC would sponsor events for specific demographics. For example I was invited to a youth caucus event with Dr. Jill Biden, a women’s caucus event with all the female Democratic senators, a Hispanic luncheon with Secretary Hilda’s. These events were truly exciting. It was a true honor to stand next to Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Red fern when he dedicated all of Ohio’s electoral votes to elect Barack Obama as the Democratic Party’s nominee for President of the United States.

The best experience of mine at the convention was sitting on the convention floor listening to various elected officials speak about the importance of re-electing President Obama and moving America forward. It was a truly amazing experience to see the passion that so many fellow Democrats had. It felt that no matter where I went I was always bumping into famous elected officials. I remember sitting on the convention floor the day Barack Obama accepted the party’s nomination thinking to myself how I was sitting where history was being made. This truly made me realize the significant roll politics and conventions play in the United States.

I am very fortunate to have this experience and look forward to working hard to make sure President Obama and Senator Brown are re-elected this fall.

Ohio: The Heart of it all

If you've been living in Ohio over the past six months and watch television at any time, you probably noticed that there's an election going on.  For those new to Ohio this can be quite overwhelming, educational, annoying, fascinating, or some combination of these.

The fact of the matter is the Ohio has been a key battleground state in Presidential Elections, and this year is no different.

One of the first places Mitt Romney came after accepting the Republican nomination was Cincinnati, OH.  Paul Ryan visited his alma mater in Southwest Ohio soon after being picked as the VP.  In 2008 Candidate Obama had 17 campaign events from June until Election Day, and on Labor Day President Obama spent part of his time in Northwest Ohio.  Just by looking at the campaign activity of the candidates, they are not only saying that Ohio is important, they are spending time and money campaigning here.

Let's make an assumption as we examine why the candidates keep coming to Ohio and inundate our airwaves with campaign commercials: candidates are rational.  By rational I am saying that they weigh costs and benefits before making a strategic decision.  They act in their own self-interest, and their main interest is cobbling together more votes than the other candidate.  Consequently, they are going to put money and effort where is will matter most, and Ohio matters quite a lot.

The importance of Ohio in 2012 is the synergy of its bellwether status, the state's competitiveness in Presidential Elections, and it's 18 electoral votes.

Over the past 100 years Ohio has voted for the loser in a Presidential Election only twice, 1944 and 1960.  What is more: No Republican has ever won the White House without also winning Ohio.  So the saying, "As Ohio goes, so goes the Nation," is not only catchy but it's accurate (more accurate than many of the campaign ads).  Connected with the bellwether status of Ohio is it's competitiveness in Presidential Elections.

According to the Ohio Poll, the 2012 Presidential Election looks like it's going to be a nail biter again.  This highlights the closeness of Presidential Elections in Ohio.  When we take a look to the 2004 and 2008 elections, the competitiveness is clearer.  Daniel Coffey and his colleagues at the University of Akron report in Buckeye Battleground that Ohio was the most competitive state in the 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections. Ohio had the lowest average margin of victory across the two elections - 3.3 percentage points.

For the candidates the message is clear: Turnout is key.  In close races you must win the turnout campaign. And, the campaigns are hard at work trying to ensure that their partisans don't stay at home.  The Romney camp is planning a "Buckeye Blitz" this month, and the Obama team is tapping into its organization that they set up four years ago and canvassing neighborhoods in targeted areas.

The winner-take-all design of the Electoral College makes Ohio's 18 electoral votes a prize worth time and effort.  Either candidate can win in Ohio but only one will, and the one that does is likely going to the White House.

Like it or not Ohioans, Ohio is at the heart of Presidential Elections.

(Ann) Romney for President

Well, I was looking forward to Ann Romney's speech and it wasn't what I thought it would be.  It was more celebration of women and the role women play in America.  This is a true and an important message for all women, but a message that should not be limited to one night. 

Ann Romney's life story is an impressive, to be sure.  But she did not deliver a clearer picture of Mitt Romney.  Even though he "made [her] laugh" he remains two dimensional. 

Below is recent polling data from the Washington Post/ABC News poll. 

Clearly Governor Romney has a personality problem (-16 net favorability) and Mrs. Romney's speech could have helped make a dent in that, but it was weak in humanizing Mitt Romney.

From tonight's speech, I'm more impressed with Ann Romney than her husband.

Ann Romney: the most important speech of the convention?

On the NewsHour Monday night David Brooks said he was looking forward to Ann Romney's speech, which is set for Tuesday in prime-time.

I'm looking forward to that speech, too.  It's not a policy speech nor an overtly political speech, but it carries with it something more important: Ann Romney's speech can help redefine the caricature that Mitt Romney has become.

As a point of comparison, watch First Lady Laura Bush's speech at the 2004 Convention.  That speech was remarkable because of how it humanized President Bush.  It was a time of war and she recalls a moment that only a wife could: "... I remember sitting in the window of the White House, watching as my husband walked on the lawn below. I knew he was wrestling with these agonizing decisions that would have such profound consequence for so many lives and for the future of our world."

Ann Romney's challenge is different and difficult.  She must convince people that Governor Romney can relate to ordinary Americans and that he understands their economic troubles.

The irony of the polls and the reality for the Romney campaign is that recent polls find that voters think that President Obama more than Governor Romney "cares about the needs and problems of people like" them, and that Obama "better understands the economic problems people in this country are having."  Other surveys, including the Ohio Poll from the University of Cincinnati, show that Romney has an advantage with voters on the economy.

Ann Romney's speech may be the most important speech for the Romney campaign.  If Romney leaves this Tampa without moving his favorability numbers higher, then his quest for the White House will not get easier.

The etch a sketch Week

After an unscripted week, Republicans, and the Romney campaign in particular, must be looking forward to their scripted National Convention week.  The past week started off with Romney’s campaign being forced off message by the “legitimate rape” comments of the once unknown House member and current – yes, he’s staying in the race – Senate candidate Todd Akin.  The week ended with a self-inflicted wound: Mitt Romney’s “joke” that “No one’s ever asked to see my birth certificate.”  It’s the economy, stupid!

The Republican National Convention could not come too soon.  But damn the weather: Tropical Storm – soon to be upgraded Hurricane – Isaac is making his way up the Florida coast.

The start of the convention is delayed a day because of the weather, but the GOP has nothing to fear.  Let us not forget that the first day of the 2008 GOP convention was essentially delayed a day because of Hurricane Gustav. The McCain campaign still got a 6 point bounce in the polls.

The Gallup Poll shows that from the conventions from 1964 to 2008, the median “bounce” from a convention is 5 points.  The bounce alone is not very predictive of electoral success, in 1980 Carter’s bounce was 10 points were as Reagan’s was 8 points and in 2008 McCain’s bounce was 6 to Obama’s 4.  So, we need to add another layer to this puzzle. 

The Gallup Poll reported that “[s]ince 1964, the first election year for which Gallup could reliably measure convention bounces, there have been only two examples in which one candidate consistently trailed until the time of his party's convention, but took the lead after and never relinquished it. Those occurred in 1988 for the elder George Bush and 1992 for Bill Clinton.”  They added: “[t]he most common pattern has been for one candidate to consistently lead prior to both conventions, and to maintain a lead during the convention period, even if his opponent got a convention bounce.”  (http://www.gallup.com/poll/110110/Gallup-Daily-McCains-Bounce-Gives-Him-5Point-Lead.aspx) 

So, as the conventions roll along it is essential to watch the national tracking polls, but more importantly to watch the state polls in critical battleground states such as Ohio (but that's for another posting).

Related to bounce, the convention week gives the campaigns an opportunity to introduce the candidates to the American public, or at least the public paying attention.  And for Romney this week is critical.  The question that the Romney campaign needs to answer is: Who is Mitt Romney?   

In answering this question, the Romney campaign must make connections between the candidates and the viewing public.  The problem for Romney is that President Obama not only leads him in most polls, Obama also leads Romney in the "favorability" category.  Sure, the Presidential Election is not, and shouldn’t be, a popularity contest, but voters find it difficult to vote for someone that they can’t connect with or they don’t like.

The highest hurdle for Romney is that he does not have a strong personal narrative that can be used to connect with most Americans.  Just by looking at the last three presidents we see strong personal narratives used in connecting to voters.  Obama and Clinton told similar biographical stories: raised by their mother and grandparents, worked their way through school or took out loans, and wanted to give back to the community so they bypassed high paying jobs on Wall Street.  For George W. Bush the narrative was somewhat different: quite literally a born-again narrative.  Bush was a "compassionate conservative," and his faith was central to his life; he had been down and out but he had worked his way to being a successful governor of Texas.

Romney needs a lasting bounce . . . so, what will be the story that Romney tells?